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Day 3 - Macaroons


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#1 Josh

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Posted 20 February 2011 - 10:21 PM

Kidz us killed in vengeance for FZ. He was human.

Day ems tomorrow at 9, possibly.
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#2 Optimist

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Posted 20 February 2011 - 10:49 PM

FZ- wolf

Kidz
Strudel
Mr Trilby
-humans


Girdag
INH
Ophelia
Oppy
The Captain
XYZIA
Zael
Kramer
Lu

2 wolves remaining.


I think, considering he started the votes on Fat Zombie, INH is probably human. I'm going to vote for Xyzia. His pursuit of the Captain doesn't convince me, he stayed well out of the arguements about INH and FZ...I think he's trying to keep a low profile.

Other wolf imo is either Lu or Girdag.

#3 Kramer

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Posted 20 February 2011 - 10:57 PM

I agree with that analysis actually Oppy - to an extent. I think one wolf is probs in the XY-Captain pairing (Ophelia is an outside shot too I guess) and the other is in the Lu-Girdag pairing (you yourself Oppy would be the outside shot here).

There's something very very hollow about XY's pursuit of The Captain though. He seemed like he was hovering about vaguely hoping something might stick. XYZIA.

#4 Optimist

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Posted 20 February 2011 - 11:06 PM

The problem with Ophelia is ?she? posted once to say that she'd post later, then disappeared. It's meta-gaming a little but I can't help thinking if she was a wolf, FZ and the other wolf would encourage her to post more, or something.

It's a little alarming thay you're so quick to agree with me.

#5 Kramer

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Posted 20 February 2011 - 11:16 PM

Not really Ops. There are 9 people left, and I've said 6 of them could be wolves and narrowed the final two down to the same four people you did, I'm discounting the 3 people who voted for FZ two of whom (myself and INH) FZ himself voted for. I was uncertain on INH yesterday, he's been up for lynch twice and twice he's got off the hook, but the FZ result exonerates him in my eyes.

Lu/Girdag is a difficult call, so I'd prefer to resolve XY/Captain for now - and XY feels the dodgier out of the two (although I'm CONVINCED The Captain is not "Brian from Essex").

#6 Ophelia

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Posted 20 February 2011 - 11:21 PM

Sorry for the inactivity, we broke the screen on our laptop and only now have means of internet access. We shall ensure we play tomorrow as we have to be up for work in a little over five hours.

#7 Zael

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Posted 20 February 2011 - 11:30 PM

I'm never convinced with an Xyzia vote, usually because ( I don't mean offence here Xyzia) he's always a bit headless when it comes to these games. He's not the only one who stayed out of the INH-FZ debate either.

I'm really suspicious of Retracted - Was Girdag now and i'm quite suprised i'm the first to mention this today. Apart from my other points against him on Day Two, after that he kept a vote on Kramer which he himself said didn't hold much water. He told us he'd explain it further but he never did. Chalk that up to being away all Sunday, but he still finds time to throw a vote on INH from his phone trying to tie him up with FZ a wolf. He did nothing when it was a tie but when I made it look certain that a wolf would get the chop he popped up to try and make it a tie again. I think that's pretty damning evidence.

#8 XYZIA

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 01:41 AM

I think my captain pursuit was entirely reasonable and based on sound reasoning. I don't think any heat is deserved from it.

#9 Lu-Tze

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 10:36 AM

View PostOptimist, on Feb 20 2011, 10:49 PM, said:

Other wolf imo is either Lu or Girdag.
Any particular reasoning for this? I mean, you and Kramer are both tossing around names without any explanation (with the exception of XYZIA, which is based on his questioning the authority of Captain Britain). Just curious what myself and Girdag are doing other than not voting for Fat Zombie (or, in fact, anyone, as I don't really check the forums at weekends).
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#10 Hey Kidz

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 12:49 PM

WOE

#11 Kramer

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 12:55 PM

Does the kill on Kidz tell us anything? I haven't really considered his interactions.

#12 XYZIA

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 01:05 PM

It's so very rare that a wolf kill tells us anything.

#13 Kramer

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 01:24 PM

Well, it's about as rare as an XY TWG post proves in any way informative or useful I'd say.

#14 Josh

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 01:26 PM

SICK BUURRRRN
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#15 The Captain

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 01:29 PM

I just read through Day 2 again with the knowledge of Kidz (oops) and Fat Zombie's roles now available and unfortunately I only picked out one post as giving me a specific read on someone:

XZYIA - probably human - because he discounted Kidz (human) as suspect when he didn't need to (post #12 Day 2 http://www.thetales....p...t&p=256445)

I was hoping for much more :(

I did get a bit paranoid that maybe the people voting for Fat Zombie (Kramer and INH) were wolves as well and killed him to look human which is why Fat Zombie got so annoyed at the end of the day. Although Kramer did just seem annoyed that he'd been voted for.

Thinking about it, Zael only jumped onto Fat Zombie right at the end (8.45pm) which broke the tie. You wouldn't think a wolf would do that when there's a chance a human would die instead, but equally a wolf might do that to make themselves look human. Especially if more than one of the three were wolves!

Zeal actually seemed quite reasonable throughout the rest of the day though, so I think I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

This doesn't seem to help much, but at least I know who I'm not voting for now.

#16 XYZIA

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 01:42 PM

Well, to be honest that's not a adequate defence of me. I would have denounced Kidz as a subject had I been a wolf.

Kramers rush to save Kidz (allthough not overt) by picking up a Fat Zombie case could be see as an attempt to gain trustworthiness within the human camp by placing himself as a key figure. Bit suspicious maybe.

#17 XYZIA

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 03:21 PM

Parv does this all the time btw. He has an apsolute need to be the most important person in that game. I feel this play is indicative of wolf play simply because there's a huge amount more in attempt of manipulation.

Day one: He tries to create a 50/50 slide between Kidz and Strudel. Demanding no other votes for any other person.

Both are human, and he knows, he's trying to prevent the lynch from sliding to any other player and possibly a wolf. It's safe for him where it is.

That's ludacrously suspicious.
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#18 Girdag

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 03:36 PM

That's the reasoning I came up with yesterday, but I reckon that Kramer's point that there were only 5 minutes to go is pretty solid, I'm not sure we can read much into that really.

I need to re-read Day Two, but I'm pretty busy at the moment, will try to grab a chance later today.
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#19 Girdag

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 03:50 PM

Actually, I think I'd get behind an RETRACTED:WAS XYZIA vote. He stayed VERY clear of the INH/Fat Zombie argument, I don't think he ever posted either way on it, which is a bit suspicious to me, he was clearly around, and the Captain vote wasn't going anywhere. The only way it makes sense to me is that he was a wolf who didn't want to condemn a fellow wolf, but didn't want to be seen to be obviously saving Fat Zombie either. There's also all his short 'I find person X suspicious' posts that he doesn't follow up with votes most of the time. Except today, where he appears to be advocating a Kramer lynch on grounds that have already been disproven.

But what seems really suspicious is the post that The Captain quoted in defence of XYZIA - his defence of Kidz. That smells a bit too much like a tactic I've used far too often in the past as a wolf - get in there with a defence of a human against a weak attack that was never likely to lead to anything serious. Then you gain a bit of goodwill for defending them, as humans don't usually expect wolves to defend humans. Combined with the rest, I reckon XYZIA should be our prime target today.
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#20 Girdag

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 03:57 PM

View PostZael, on Feb 20 2011, 11:30 PM, said:

I'm really suspicious of Girdag now and i'm quite suprised i'm the first to mention this today. Apart from my other points against him on Day Two, after that he kept a vote on Kramer which he himself said didn't hold much water. He told us he'd explain it further but he never did. Chalk that up to being away all Sunday, but he still finds time to throw a vote on INH from his phone trying to tie him up with FZ a wolf. He did nothing when it was a tie but when I made it look certain that a wolf would get the chop he popped up to try and make it a tie again. I think that's pretty damning evidence.
I think my only response can be that a wolf trying to pull a fellow wolf from certain death to only 50% chance of death would be a massive gamble - 50% chance that the wolf dies anyway, and you've put major suspicion on yourself. Plus, when I play as a wolf, I'm a dick who'll happily sacrifice team members for the greater good, so I'd have been all about jumping on the Fat Zombie vote - it was that kind of play that got me to the final day that time when I slipped up while talking to I-Jim. I think the rational wolf there would have voted for Fat Zombie, lost a relatively inactive wolf, and gained a lot of credibility.

EDIT: Apologies for the triple-post, btw, I'm having to grab free time when I can atm.
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#21 Kramer

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 04:11 PM

XY, when I made this post yesterday things were all tied up 2-2-2 between myself, INH and the Captain. I could have done a number of things here: 1. nothing, sticking with The Captain, 2. switch to INH to make it 3-2, or 3. switch to someone else to make it another configuration of 2-2-2 tie up.

Now let's pretend for a second that I'm a wolf who knew FZ was a wolf. Play this in your mind a second and then ask yourself the following questions:

- would I, in a situation I was only in a 33% chance of dying with most of the day left to play, attract attention to myself and switch to a fellow only to vote for a wolf teammate who was not in any real danger?

- more to the point, why would FZ have bothered voting for me in the first place?

- finally, and here's the kicker, if I was a wolf, why not just put INH on 3? Or, even better, get a teammate  - such as FZ, for example, to do that for me? INH is a strong player - do you think for a second he'd still be alive if I was a wolf?

There was no reason for me to do any of those things. And when I swtiched from The Captain to FZ, my chances of dying were exactly the same (33%) - I had no idea someone else would then come and put the nail in FZ's coffin. And Zael having done so has proved my intuition on him correct.

Is this just a basic retaliation vote XY? It seems a bit churlish to me to ignore the above events of day 2 and vote for someone based on a (quite reasonable) last-minute day 1 action.

#22 XYZIA

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 04:20 PM

You've considered that all so well though.

The point is, this is you. You love this shit, you wouldn't want to vote for INH because that is boring. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

This exactly the sort of elaborate scheme that wolf Kramer would pull.

What's more, I didn't even question you on that. You've thought up this scheme because you know it makes you look really human. And thus feel that you need to bring it up, even when I wasn't even talking about it, and it's irrelivant.
Humans don't consider stuff like that, if you were human you probably wouldn't have realised that you did all that, and how it made you look human till you were questioned on the events.

The fact it's so fully realised in your brain is suspicious to me.

#23 Lu-Tze

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 04:28 PM

View PostKramer, on Feb 21 2011, 04:11 PM, said:

There was no reason for me to do any of those things.
Which makes me more curious why you did. I mean, a wolf sacrifice is a pretty common tactic, but it seems an odd way to go about it. Is INH you 3rd wolfy comrade?

I'm not liking the way this day is spinning, so i'm going to make this pretty clear. Kramer is a wolf. I wish I could come up with some elaborate case to try to explain myself. I wish I could find something that you could try and defend against, and better you on the field of words. I wish I could have caught you in your own lies and lynched you for good reason, but it's just the plain old boring fact that you are too tempting a target. And once you know, it's hard to find supporting reasons why you suspect.

I wasn't really around at the weekend to follow stuff up, and I wanted to play it out a bit more, but it turns out it was fortunate to leave you alive as you ended up killing one of your own for me. Hopefully everyone else can band together to figure out the last wolf.
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#24 Zael

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 04:37 PM

@ Girdag

Yeah I accept that, but i've noticed a lot of veteran wolves sometimes go for the more obvious option because they'll come out with the defence that the action was too obvious for a smart wolf. Putting a vote on INH may be risky, but how risky is it in reality? I've seen a ton of games where a wolf has defended a blantantly wolfy action by the reponse of "would I actually do something so obvious as a wolf?"

That it in itself isn't enough to incriminate you though, but when you take that with the fact that you've been hopping from vote to vote since the game started with very little reasoning, sticking to a self-admitted weak Kramer vote offering us an explanation that never came, and the last minute INH vote was particularily odd. Why stick your neck out at all, why not just let FZ die? You couldn't be that sure INH was a wolf to justify a last minute vote like that.

I'd like to hear INH's thoughts on what happened last night, as well as something from people in the game who haven't said much.

#25 Zael

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Posted 21 February 2011 - 04:39 PM

Double post after seeing Lu's vote.

So now two people have voted for Kramer based on hunches?